Dollar–won 1,500Whether the low-won range can hold is the key focus this week
This week (6 month 15–19 day), the key question for the dollar–won exchange rate is whether the low-won range can hold. Expectations of easing tensions between the United States and Iran, along with changes in foreign investors’ remittance demand and exporters’ selling, are expected to determine the direction of the exchange rate.1,500The key question is whether the low-won range can hold this week ( month – day) in the Seoul foreign exchange market. If the won’s strength continues, it could affect exporters’ won-denominated earnings and the KOSPI’s direction.
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This week (6 month 15–19 day), the key issue in the Seoul foreign exchange market is whether the low-won range can hold. If the won’s strength continues, it could affect exporters’ won-denominated earnings and the KOSPI’s direction.1,500The key question is whether the low-won range can hold this week ( month – day) in the Seoul foreign exchange market. If the won’s strength continues, it could affect exporters’ won-denominated earnings and the KOSPI’s direction.
The conflict between the United States and Iran has continued for more than 3 months, but expectations of an end to the conflict have grown, strengthening appetite for risk assets. As a result, factors favoring dollar weakness currently prevail.
There is growing speculation that foreign investors’ remittance demand, which has driven a concentration of dollar buying in the Seoul foreign exchange market for more than a month, may be reaching a turning point. If remittances decline, demand for dollar purchases could weaken.
Exporters may begin bringing substantial volumes to the market for negotiation. As such transactions increase, the supply of dollars will rise, intensifying downward pressure on the exchange rate.
Market participants expect these changes in supply and demand to be reflected in the exchange rate from the beginning of the week. Exchange-rate volatility may create divergent trends across industries.
Traders should examine foreign-exchange positions, export shares, and foreign-fund flows together. Checking whether exporters resume negotiations and monitoring repatriation flows can help determine the degree of exposure to exchange-rate fluctuations.
Sources: 연합인포맥스
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