Barclays, Bank of Korea7monthly base rate25bp rate hike projection
Barclays forecasts that the Bank of Korea will unanimously increase the base rate by7bp (percentage points) at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting. However, they assess that the probability of a consecutive hike in25month is low.0.25month consecutive hike possibility low.8month consecutive hike possibility low.
Barclays expects that the Bank of Korea will unanimously raise the base rate by7bp (percentage points) at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting. This projection serves as a signal to gauge the direction of short-term interest rates.25this projection serves as a signal to gauge the direction of short-term interest rates.0.25this projection serves as a signal to gauge the direction of short-term interest rates.
Son Beom-ki, an economist at Barclays, mentioned in an interview on14day that the quarterly headline and core inflation rates exceeded the Bank of Korea's projections by2bp each, which he presented as evidence for a rate hike. He views this inflation trend as appropriately supporting the decision for a hike.10presented as evidence for a rate hike. He views this inflation trend as appropriately supporting the decision for a hike.
The economist explained that market interest is focused on the possibility of a consecutive hike in7month, rather than the hike itself happening in8month. However, at this point, they project that the possibility of a consecutive hike in8month is low.
Barclays' outlook may vary depending on the results of monetary policy votes and the accompanying statements. The expression of unanimity indicates consensus among the committee members.
This interview content does not include additional figures or dates that could change the Bank of Korea's future outlook. The market will likely focus on the minutes and voting results that will be released shortly after the meeting.7
The published forecast is based on the agency's own analysis, and the final decision by the Bank of Korea will be confirmed through the Monetary Policy Committee vote. Barclays reiterated its view that the likelihood of consecutive rate hikes next month is low.8
Sources: 연합인포맥스
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