IEA warns: lower global oil demand and a U.S.-Iran clash threaten 2027years of surplus
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report on 7month 10day that global oil demand is expected to fall annually for the first time since 2020year, and warned that if tensions between the United States and Iran intensify, the market surplus expected in 2027year could be at risk. Slower demand and geopolitical risks acting at the same time could increase oil-price volatility.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in a report on 7month 10day that global oil demand will show an annual decline for the first time since 2020year. The announcement could have a direct impact on future oil prices and earnings in the energy sector.
In the same report, the IEA warned that if tensions between the U.S. and Iran flare up again, the market surplus expected in 2027year could be threatened. The report said geopolitical uncertainty could complicate the outlook.
The report pointed out that weakness on the demand side and uncertainty on the supply side are present at the same time. Specific figures and models are explained in the body of the report.
IEA’s warning suggests that market balance can shift rapidly when an annual demand-decline outlook is combined with geopolitical risks. It added that relevant market participants and policymakers need to pay attention to this change.
The report was released on 7month 10day. The IEA said it plans to provide additional updates in a future report.
The market impact depends on whether the signal of weakening demand or geopolitical risk gains the upper hand. If these two factors act at the same time, short-term volatility could increase.
Sources: Reuters,CNBC Top News
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