Trump: “Hormuz Strait shipping is open”… money being poured into oil and shipping routes

7 on 12On that day, President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessel traffic. If the key sea lane used by oil tankers carrying crude were blocked, oil prices and stock prices would all be shaken. Whether this one-line remark will actually change logistics flows is now deciding the fate of the money investors have put in.

Looking at the background makes clear why the announcement carries such tension. The United States carried out military strikes on Iran, and the two sides have been exchanging airstrikes in the Gulf region since 7 at the beginning of the month. The risk of war has become real.

As the attacks continued, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed. Some reports said there were stretches where tanker passage had effectively stopped. Considering that about 5 of the world’s crude oil passes through this strait, even a stoppage lasting only a few days makes supply disruptions unavoidable.1.**

Even after Trump’s declaration that the route would be opened, shipping companies are not moving easily. They are seen rechecking safe routes or choosing detour routes. Even if the government says it has been "opened," there is no shipping company that would send ships recklessly when insurance premiums and freight rates are changing in real time.

In the current market, this dilemma is appearing in reality.

• Despite stable labor-market indicators, geopolitical tensions are spreading and the dollar is edging lower
• Indicators related to crude oil and shipping are showing volatility
• Refiners are monitoring insurance-premium increases, while shipping companies are monitoring freight-rate changes in real time

The timing of Trump’s remarks was 7month 12day. A declaration alone does not immediately normalize the route. It is when the situation in the fighting and the safety of the route become tangled again that determines vessel traffic.