US semiconductor stock outlook 2026: To rise further, watch the flow of AI money

Key takeaways

The US stock market in 2026 will see increased capital investment in big tech (over 40% year-on-year) driving semiconductor demand, benefiting AI and semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA. Infrastructure for power, cooling, and networking, which have not risen as much as direct beneficiaries, may provide opportunities for performance improvement and relative undervaluation.

In 2026, it is well-known that AI and semiconductors will lead the U.S. stock market. What is truly important, however, is identifying which stocks that have already risen significantly are still worth buying now. By reading this article, you will understand where big tech money is flowing and which hidden beneficiaries are emerging within that sequence.

It has been reported that big tech's capital expenditures (CapEx, spending on factories, servers, and infrastructure) in 2026 will increase by more than 40% compared to the previous year. Companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are simultaneously opening their data center wallets. The first and most significant flow of this money is directed towards semiconductors.

This is also the reason why the earnings of NVIDIA (NVIDIA), Broadcom, and AMD have greatly exceeded market expectations. As the size of AI models grows, the required computational resources increase, leading to a corresponding rise in demand for the chips that process those computations.

The demand for semiconductors is not limited to AI alone. The demand is expanding to the automotive sector, IoT (Internet of Things), and energy storage fields. The stabilization of TSMC's 3-nanometer process yield is another factor accelerating this trend. This is where the story of semiconductors ends, but the issue remains regarding prices.

There are also clear risks:

As the technological supremacy competition between the U.S. and China intensifies, export regulations and supply chain costs are rising.
If we look at how many times the stock price exceeds earnings (PER), the valuations of major AI beneficiaries are already at a high level.
Increased manufacturing costs due to supply chain restructuring could pressure profit margins.

So where should we look now? There are areas where the stock prices have not risen as much as the direct beneficiaries, but performance improvements are following. These are components and facilities that are essential for data centers to operate, such as power infrastructure, cooling systems, and networking equipment. Relatively less expensive stocks compared to their performance can be found here.

Frequently asked questions

What specific impact will the AI and semiconductor supercycle in 2026 have on individual company stocks?

Increased investment in large data center facilities will boost semiconductor demand, leading to improved performance and upward pressure on stock prices for related companies.

How can we analyze the impact of AI accelerators and high-performance chips like the H100 and H200 on semiconductor company quarterly performance?

We assess performance sensitivity by comparing trends in capital expenditure (CapEx), shipment volumes, average selling prices (ASP) of chips, and foundry yield changes.

How does semiconductor supply shortage and inventory adjustment change the profit structure of semiconductor companies in 2026?

Supply shortages raise prices and profits in the short term, but inventory adjustments may lower profit margins afterward, with rising manufacturing costs adding further pressure.

What impact do changes in US interest rates and inflation have on whether technology stocks, particularly semiconductor and AI companies, appear expensive or cheap relative to their performance in 2026?

Rising interest rates increase the discount rate for growth stocks, making stock prices appear expensive relative to performance. Comparing price-to-earnings ratios (PER) makes this assessment easier.

What financial indicators and criteria should novice investors check to profit from the AI and semiconductor supercycle in 2026?

They should first check sales growth rates, operating profit margins, free cash flow, capital expenditure size, and the price-to-earnings ratio (PER).

How can we determine which factor contributes more to long-term competitiveness between large semiconductor facility investments and expanded R&D?

If product competitiveness lies in process advantages, facility investment is vital; if design or software advantages exist, R&D investment is more important. Observe customer structure and gaps in process technology.